Seriously, at a conference in Hanoi she dresses down Myanmar for its human rights record. You know, because it's only a right-wing junta that might disappear eventually. Vietnam has a viciously centralized absolute government - but they allow Chinese reforms like Disney channel so it's okay.
Lesson: bad guys fear power. Less-bad guys are vulnerable to diplomacy. Less-bad guys also tend to correct themselves slowly over time anyway - about at the same pace it takes 'diplomacy' to work.
Hoorah for stern lectures from erstwhile first ladies!!!!
(Myanmar are bad guys, no question, I'm just saying they're more 'transient', therefore less-bad, Hanoi is pretty entrenched by now)
Friday, July 23, 2010
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Economic Speculations #1
-People produce stuff.
-If they have stuff they don't mind giving up to get other stuff other people have produced who happen to be in the same situation, they will.
-Money is, always always always, a form of IOU - or, who 'has dibs' on the stuff.
-Savings is when you produce, take IOU's, because you've consumed less than what you deserve based on what you've given up.
-The IOU's always, ever, only apply to the size of the 'pot' of what's been produced but not yet consumed at any given moment. Presumably, if you produce more than you consume this year, you'll be waiting for the guy who consumed more than he produced to switch roles with you next year. Thus your IOU is worthwhile.
-When nobody's producing anymore, all savings represent only 'dibs' on the pot of what's there. The more people spend on the diminishing pot, the more valuable 'dibs' become. The value of savings increases. This is called: DEFLATION. And the net result is less of the pot to go around: MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT.
-When the printer of IOU's prints way more IOU's than anyone has earned, this makes any existing savings less valuable. In effect, you gave up your labor and produced, earned, wealth for an IOU. In a given year, that IOU applies to the 'pot'. The printer of IOU's, i.e.: money (the government printing press), ends up reserving part of that pot for himself, shoving you out of the way. This is called INFLATION, or perhaps should be called SUCKERS.
-Inflation and deflation are then distinct issues. One is caused by money supply issues (how much of the little pieces of paper are there), both matter or don't matter depeding on PRODUCTION.
-If no one is producing, printing money will not do anything except screw over those who have happened to save. And saving money won't do anything except postpone your inevitable dead end in the race to the bottom.
-Economic growth, wealth, and so forth depend on PRODUCTION. There always has to be production, because time always moves forward. For every apple you eat today, you will experience a hungry belly tomorrow. RELENTLESS TREADMILLS OF PRODUCTION IN THE CAPITALIST INSATIABLE THIRST FOR MORE are nothing more than a reflection of the simple reality that time moves forward and doesn't stop.
-If there is production, inflation is a chip on the shoulder of savers, but increasing total wealth gives value to their savings regardless.
-In a downturn, the only solution is to help production occur. Unemployment has everything to do with production of REAL WEALTH, and nothing to do with MONEY SUPPLY. Unless you are considering the career path of a figment of my imagination.
-Big G government spending, whether the money is obtained through taxing and taking it from others, or through printing it (sneakily taking it from others), or borrowing it (writing IOU's), it only works to fix the economy if there is some sector of the economy that IS producing, but is holding back from ANOTHER sector. Basically, you point a gun at the producers and say: share, whereby those who aren't producing have the wealth available to invest and produce THEMSELVES. For taxes you're saying it's the rich holding back. Borrowing money means that some other country like China is holding back. Printing money means that you're saying that everyone is holding back.
-You can share IOU's but you can't share production. A person will either produce, or not. Not as an individual, but in general within the economy. No matter what the distribution of MONEY SUPPLY is, the facts of production won't change. Still, people who advocate for Big G spending assume that production chases dollars. If you hold dollars (IOU's) like a carrot on a stick in front of people, they'll produce. Next year, no one will remember that the IOU's were fake because they'll be reaping the bounty of their hard work. WRONG! Production chases WEALTH.
-Wealth and production are the result of economic RELATIONSHIPS. These are the result of rational HABITS. People produce according to their line of sight both back into their own history, and to the horizon of the future. If a bunch of migrant construction workers start eating at my diner because they're working on the local infrastructure project funded by Big G, I'm not going to take their money and invest in new equipment to serve more people! Rather, if people slowly and surely start coming to my diner - if a new permanent job source like a big factory is built - then I'll do that, even maybe stretching myself out a little. SHOT-IN-THE-ARM spending always looks like shot-in-the-arm spending and the economy reacts accordingly.
-When the pot shrinks because there is less production, but the government prints a bunch of money, then there is unemployment and inflation: STAGFLATION.
-Deflation is not a problem in downturns, inflation is not a problem in downturns, unemployment is not a problem in downturns, LACK OF PRODUCTION IS THE F*$%ING PROBLEM.
-When too many people take out IOU's assuming tomorrow's pot will be big, and then all sit down on their hands tomorrow, it's called a RECESSION. The solution is that people get off their hands and work. I don't mean laziness, economically getting off your hands and working when you have an honest-to-goodness IOU is called: LOSING MONEY. Alternatively, it's called: BEING A SUCKER. In the real world, it's as if you don't go on vacation for 10 years to have a super vacation at the end of it, just to find out you can't.
-When a recession happens, people don't have a choice and have to deal with what has happened to them. In a matter of months people are producing again (by people I mean institutions and people and economies), and the recession is over.
-A depression is when a recession lasts too long. This has ONLY EVER HAPPENED when the GOVERNMENT manipulates the MONEY SUPPLY to EXTEND THE SUCKER BEHAVIOR so that no one has to COME TO GRIPS with the fact that they MESSED UP.
-Depressions are very bad. Recessions only make people feel like suckers after they sat on their hands for a bit. Depressions erase the habits and relationships that had led to production. This is the source of LOST GENERATIONS.
-When there is an economic downturn, the solution is always: fix the money supply constant at a conservative, predictable, interest rate - IF THERE'S DEFLATION IT'S ONLY A SYMPTOM NOT A CAUSE TO BE STOPPED - lower as many taxes as possible - SHORT TERM BORROWING FOR FUNDING IS OKAY - don't increase the size or scope of government spending one iota - AND DON'T DO SO LATER UNTIL THE DEBT FROM THE RECESSION IS PAID BACK - enforce clear, liberal regulations - WHEN IN DOUBT LAISSEZ-FAIRE, BUT ABOVE ALL DO NOT ACT CAPRICIOUSLY, ALWAYS PREDICTABLY AND MINIMALLY.
-This formula will always solve a downturn in a matter of months. UNLESS YOU ARE SO FAR DOWN THE RABBIT HOLE THAT ONLY A NUCLEAR BLAST OF A CRASH WILL RESET THE SYSTEM.
-If they have stuff they don't mind giving up to get other stuff other people have produced who happen to be in the same situation, they will.
-Money is, always always always, a form of IOU - or, who 'has dibs' on the stuff.
-Savings is when you produce, take IOU's, because you've consumed less than what you deserve based on what you've given up.
-The IOU's always, ever, only apply to the size of the 'pot' of what's been produced but not yet consumed at any given moment. Presumably, if you produce more than you consume this year, you'll be waiting for the guy who consumed more than he produced to switch roles with you next year. Thus your IOU is worthwhile.
-When nobody's producing anymore, all savings represent only 'dibs' on the pot of what's there. The more people spend on the diminishing pot, the more valuable 'dibs' become. The value of savings increases. This is called: DEFLATION. And the net result is less of the pot to go around: MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT.
-When the printer of IOU's prints way more IOU's than anyone has earned, this makes any existing savings less valuable. In effect, you gave up your labor and produced, earned, wealth for an IOU. In a given year, that IOU applies to the 'pot'. The printer of IOU's, i.e.: money (the government printing press), ends up reserving part of that pot for himself, shoving you out of the way. This is called INFLATION, or perhaps should be called SUCKERS.
-Inflation and deflation are then distinct issues. One is caused by money supply issues (how much of the little pieces of paper are there), both matter or don't matter depeding on PRODUCTION.
-If no one is producing, printing money will not do anything except screw over those who have happened to save. And saving money won't do anything except postpone your inevitable dead end in the race to the bottom.
-Economic growth, wealth, and so forth depend on PRODUCTION. There always has to be production, because time always moves forward. For every apple you eat today, you will experience a hungry belly tomorrow. RELENTLESS TREADMILLS OF PRODUCTION IN THE CAPITALIST INSATIABLE THIRST FOR MORE are nothing more than a reflection of the simple reality that time moves forward and doesn't stop.
-If there is production, inflation is a chip on the shoulder of savers, but increasing total wealth gives value to their savings regardless.
-In a downturn, the only solution is to help production occur. Unemployment has everything to do with production of REAL WEALTH, and nothing to do with MONEY SUPPLY. Unless you are considering the career path of a figment of my imagination.
-Big G government spending, whether the money is obtained through taxing and taking it from others, or through printing it (sneakily taking it from others), or borrowing it (writing IOU's), it only works to fix the economy if there is some sector of the economy that IS producing, but is holding back from ANOTHER sector. Basically, you point a gun at the producers and say: share, whereby those who aren't producing have the wealth available to invest and produce THEMSELVES. For taxes you're saying it's the rich holding back. Borrowing money means that some other country like China is holding back. Printing money means that you're saying that everyone is holding back.
-You can share IOU's but you can't share production. A person will either produce, or not. Not as an individual, but in general within the economy. No matter what the distribution of MONEY SUPPLY is, the facts of production won't change. Still, people who advocate for Big G spending assume that production chases dollars. If you hold dollars (IOU's) like a carrot on a stick in front of people, they'll produce. Next year, no one will remember that the IOU's were fake because they'll be reaping the bounty of their hard work. WRONG! Production chases WEALTH.
-Wealth and production are the result of economic RELATIONSHIPS. These are the result of rational HABITS. People produce according to their line of sight both back into their own history, and to the horizon of the future. If a bunch of migrant construction workers start eating at my diner because they're working on the local infrastructure project funded by Big G, I'm not going to take their money and invest in new equipment to serve more people! Rather, if people slowly and surely start coming to my diner - if a new permanent job source like a big factory is built - then I'll do that, even maybe stretching myself out a little. SHOT-IN-THE-ARM spending always looks like shot-in-the-arm spending and the economy reacts accordingly.
-When the pot shrinks because there is less production, but the government prints a bunch of money, then there is unemployment and inflation: STAGFLATION.
-Deflation is not a problem in downturns, inflation is not a problem in downturns, unemployment is not a problem in downturns, LACK OF PRODUCTION IS THE F*$%ING PROBLEM.
-When too many people take out IOU's assuming tomorrow's pot will be big, and then all sit down on their hands tomorrow, it's called a RECESSION. The solution is that people get off their hands and work. I don't mean laziness, economically getting off your hands and working when you have an honest-to-goodness IOU is called: LOSING MONEY. Alternatively, it's called: BEING A SUCKER. In the real world, it's as if you don't go on vacation for 10 years to have a super vacation at the end of it, just to find out you can't.
-When a recession happens, people don't have a choice and have to deal with what has happened to them. In a matter of months people are producing again (by people I mean institutions and people and economies), and the recession is over.
-A depression is when a recession lasts too long. This has ONLY EVER HAPPENED when the GOVERNMENT manipulates the MONEY SUPPLY to EXTEND THE SUCKER BEHAVIOR so that no one has to COME TO GRIPS with the fact that they MESSED UP.
-Depressions are very bad. Recessions only make people feel like suckers after they sat on their hands for a bit. Depressions erase the habits and relationships that had led to production. This is the source of LOST GENERATIONS.
-When there is an economic downturn, the solution is always: fix the money supply constant at a conservative, predictable, interest rate - IF THERE'S DEFLATION IT'S ONLY A SYMPTOM NOT A CAUSE TO BE STOPPED - lower as many taxes as possible - SHORT TERM BORROWING FOR FUNDING IS OKAY - don't increase the size or scope of government spending one iota - AND DON'T DO SO LATER UNTIL THE DEBT FROM THE RECESSION IS PAID BACK - enforce clear, liberal regulations - WHEN IN DOUBT LAISSEZ-FAIRE, BUT ABOVE ALL DO NOT ACT CAPRICIOUSLY, ALWAYS PREDICTABLY AND MINIMALLY.
-This formula will always solve a downturn in a matter of months. UNLESS YOU ARE SO FAR DOWN THE RABBIT HOLE THAT ONLY A NUCLEAR BLAST OF A CRASH WILL RESET THE SYSTEM.
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